Staying Focused on Your Long-Term Goals

July 15, 2026

Dear Friend,

Summer is a good time to step back, spend time with family and friends, and reflect.

We have often written about volatility, emotional decision-making, and long-term investing. Conditions are always changing, yet human behavior often remains remarkably consistent. Some stay anchored to their goals. Others react to short-term movements and negative headlines.

Two Different Approaches
To explore this idea, we compared two investors whose experiences led to very different results. While the illustration is based on real decision-making, the projections rely on assumptions and are not guarantees of future results. Actual outcomes will vary. The goal is to show how investment choices made during periods of uncertainty can influence long-term results.

Both clients began January 2025 with $1 million allocated in a portfolio of 70% equity and 30% fixed income. During the market decline in April 2025, Client A became concerned and moved fully to cash. The account remained in a money market fund through year-end before re-entering the market in January 2026 with reduced equity exposure: 30% equity and 70% fixed income. That shift limited participation in future growth just before retirement.

Client B stayed invested throughout, maintaining the allocation of 70% equity and 30% fixed income. The chart below follows both clients from that April 2025 decision point. Beginning July 1, 2026, both take regular $4,000 monthly withdrawals, with the same long-term return assumptions applied.

At the start of retirement, the gap between the two clients may not appear overwhelming. However, Client B’s decision to remain invested allowed the portfolio to benefit from the recovery and continue compounding over time. By trusting the process and staying focused on long-term goals, Client B gave the plan time to work.

Client A’s move to cash, followed by reduced equity exposure, limited the potential for future growth. After 20 years in retirement, Client B’s portfolio would end the illustration $1,187,097 higher than Client A’s, providing a larger base to support ongoing monthly retirement distributions. Investment success is not about predicting every market movement correctly. It comes from disciplined decision-making, thoughtful risk management, and a long-term perspective. Recently, Client B thanked us for giving his family peace of mind. This is not intended as criticism. Investing can be emotional. Volatility is uncomfortable, and headlines are designed to create urgency. The most difficult moments to stay invested are often the times when discipline matters most and when buying opportunities emerge.

In our 2023 newsletter on investment discipline, we wrote that “often, one of the best market days occurred immediately after the worst days.” History has continued to reinforce that point. Every year can bring new reasons to worry. The specific fears change, but market pullbacks remain a normal part of long-term investing. The following chart highlights the largest S&P 500 pullback in each year since 2020 and the key concerns influencing investor sentiment at the time.

While the sources of uncertainty are different each year, the lesson remains the same. Rather than trying to predict when prices will rise or fall, we believe clients are better served by maintaining a well-diversified portfolio designed to weather a variety of conditions.

Calm During Turbulence
Many of you will travel this summer. At some point during a flight, there will likely be turbulence. Passengers may become nervous, but experienced pilots do not panic every time the aircraft hits rough air. They stay calm, trust their training, follow their instruments, and focus on reaching the destination safely.

Pilots also trust the aircraft. Commercial airplanes are designed to withstand far more stress than most travelers realize. They encounter turbulence every day and are engineered to operate safely through conditions that may feel uncomfortable from the cabin.

Investing works much the same way.

Volatility can feel unsettling, but it is not unusual. Corrections, bear markets, recessions, geopolitical conflicts, and economic uncertainty have always been part of investing. Financial markets have experienced all these events before and, over time, continued moving forward.

Just as passengers trust the pilot and the aircraft, clients benefit from trusting both the investment process and the underlying businesses they own. Temporary turbulence is part of the journey. Long term success comes from remaining focused on the destination rather than reacting to every bump along the way.

As we wrote in a previous newsletter, “volatility should be your friend.” That principle applies during difficult periods, but also when enthusiasm becomes excessive. When stocks are advancing and confidence is high, some investors and forecasters begin asking how long it can last. Optimism can cloud judgment as much as fear, which is why rational decision-making matters in both environments.

Times of uncertainty often separate those who react from those who remain disciplined. When some rush to sell, others may be willing to buy high-quality businesses at more attractive prices. Over time, patience and thoughtful decision-making have been rewarded.

Summer Reading
Many of you have already received either a printed or electronic copy of our recently published book, Acquiring Knowledge, Building Wealth: Three Decades of Noesis.

The book reflects on the history of Noesis, lessons learned over three decades, and the philosophy that continues to guide our firm today. We hope you find time this summer to enjoy the book with family, friends, and your next generation.

Some have asked about the oak tree featured on the cover. We chose it intentionally. The oak symbolizes strength, longevity, deep roots, and growth over time. It begins as a small acorn and develops over decades into something enduring. As the tree grows, each branch gives rise to new branches, much like the power of compounding, where small, disciplined decisions accumulate into meaningful results. We felt it reflected many of the same principles that guide successful wealth management (see chart on first page).

Thank you to everyone who read the book and shared feedback with us. We always appreciate your comments and the opportunity to continue improving. Your perspective helps us refine our approach and strengthen the way we serve you and your family.

Conclusion
The investment cycle will move through periods of calm and turbulence. No one knows which concernwill dominate the next headline or how investors will respond. What remains constant is the value of a sound plan, a patient approach, and the ability to exercise clear judgment when conditions change.

At Noesis, we remain focused on what we can control. Rather than attempting to predict every turn, we believe success comes from owning high-quality businesses, staying well diversified, and making thoughtful choices through changing market environments.

More importantly, we do not lose sight of why you invest in the first place. Behind every portfolio is a person, a family, and a purpose. While conditions fluctuate, the reasons people invest rarely do.

Whether your goal is enjoying retirement with confidence, helping the next generation, supporting causes that are meaningful to you, or preserving a lasting legacy, our commitment remains the same: to provide thoughtful advice, steady guidance, and the peace of mind that comes from having a caring partner by
your side.

We hope you enjoy the remainder of the summer with your family and friends. Thank you for the confidence you continue to place in us.

Sincerely,