Stap Niet in Deze Valkuilen! Geachte relatie, Door de jaren heen hebben we met u gecommuniceerd via de driemaandelijkse nieuwsbrieven van Noesis, persoonlijke ontmoetingen en telefoongesprekken over onderwerpen die het nieuws domineerden. Op 18 december 2023 publiceerde de Wall Street Journal een artikel met de titel “Wat de aandelenmarkt ons dit jaar heeft geleerd: trap niet in deze valkuilen”, .... Continue Reading

Fundamenteel Onderzoek met een Tegendraadse Strategie Geachte relatie, Vorig jaar werd de S&P 500-index aangevoerd door de uitstekende prestaties van de Magnificent Seven (Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia en Tesla). De concentratie van de Magnificent Seven was één van de hoogste in de geschiedenis: deze aandelen waren goed voor ongeveer 30% van de S&P 500. De vraag die .... Continue Reading

October 11, 2023 Inflation and Interest Rates Dear Friend: The topic of inflation and interest rates remained top of mind for investors throughout this year and last. We will discuss recent developments, their impact on fixed income and equity markets, as well as opportunities we have identified. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised its short-term interest rate, the federal funds .... Continue Reading

April 17, 2023 Risk Management and Investment Discipline Dear Friend: The most significant event in the first quarter of 2023 was the failure of two U.S. banks on March 9 and the subsequent panic in the U.S. regional banks. Fortunately, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) took swift action to calm the market and depositors. The .... Continue Reading

January 17, 2023 Outlook for 2023 Dear Friend: We had a cautiously optimistic outlook at the beginning of 2022 and did not expect it to be a challenging year like it had been. Several things surprised investors. First, inflation pressure continued to rise rapidly until the fourth quarter, so the central banks had to raise interest rates faster than anticipated. Second is the .... Continue Reading

October 18, 2022 The Challenge and Opportunity of Inflation Dear Friend: It has been a year since we discussed the supply chain issue, labor shortage, ongoing pandemic, China slowdown, and inflation. Some of the challenges persist and continue to cause colossal volatility in the stock markets. The recent focus has been on inflation and the central banks’ actions to tame it. Inflation was .... Continue Reading

July 18, 2022 BEAR Markets, Speculators in Cryptoassets Lost $2,000,000,000,000 This Year Dear Friend: This summer I wanted to write about market volatility and investor behavior in down markets, and then I remembered that we discussed these topics in Noesis’ July 2014 newsletter. Our message is the same now as it was in 2014. Re-reading this newsletter, I realized that I cannot improve .... Continue Reading

April 15, 2022 Focus on What to Own Dear Friend: Our colleague Michiel Scholten, who runs our Dutch office in Amsterdam, will discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the first part of this quarterly letter. Being geographically closer to the conflict makes him well-suited to write about this war and its consequences. The second part of our newsletter will focus on the meme .... Continue Reading

January 19, 2022 Outlook for 2022 Dear Friend: Review of 2021 We wrote the following at the beginning of 2021: “The tug of war between greed and fear was definitely on display in 2020.” A similar situation occurred in 2021. The ample money supply in the financial system has raised the price of everything – including stocks, houses, cars, and daily consumable goods. .... Continue Reading

October 19, 2021 Opportunities Through Market Volatilities Dear Friend: As we are approaching the last quarter of 2021, we face many issues: the continuing pandemic, inflation, supply chain disruption, labor shortage, elevated government debt burden, China growth deceleration, and less predictable weather patterns. Almost every segment of society – the business communities, governments, healthcare professionals, and environmentalists – are all trying to figure .... Continue Reading